Following increasing political risk in 2016, characterised by both rising populist and anti-globalisation movements and, above all, the UK’s Brexit referendum, European speculators’ attention is now shifting towards the French presidential elections in 2017.
Writing for Bloomberg Briefs, Patrick Artus, chief economist, Natixis, argues that if the French public endorses a vote for Marine Le Pen’s Front National, a French exit, or “Frexit,” could spell the beginning of the end for the European Union.
Artus says, “In our view, endorsing a Frexit would represent a grave miscalculation of its consequences compared with a Brexit. Should Le Pen emerge victorious next spring and begin to set a Frexit in motion, investors must be wary of a potential end to Europe’s political and economic framework as we currently know it.”
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